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    2. The Coal Chemical Industry Breeds Great Investment Opportunities

      Column:Industry Dynamics Time:2015-01-15

      With the continuous improvement of China's industrialization and urbanization, the domestic demand for energy, especially oil, is growing rapidly. Since 1993, China has changed from an oil exporter to an oil importer. Since 2003, China has become the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States. In 2011, the net import of oil was 251 million tons, which is estimated to be 4.81 million barrels per day on average. The dependence on imported oil has reached 55.9%. A study by the Chinese Academy of Engineering on China's medium- and long-term energy development strategy shows that by 2030, China's annual oil demand is 644 million tons, even with the lowest forecast. Some experts predict that China's dependence on imported oil will reach 60% by 2020 and 65% by 2030. The United States has consolidated its control over oil resources in the Middle East through two Iraq wars. Once the strategic containment of China's energy resources is implemented, it will affect China's oil imports from the region. Therefore, China's high dependence on imported oil has seriously threatened China's energy security, and China's local energy security is imminent.

      What if there is a shortage of oil? Petroleum belongs to material energy. Energy exists in the form of substance. Compared with electricity, energy storage and transportation are very convenient. It does not depend entirely on a fixed transmission network and can be easily carried by aircraft, ships and vehicles. The energy density of petroleum is also very high. This characteristic is very important for transportation equipment with limited volume and load, which is also incomparable with other energy forms at present. So oil now provides more than 90% of the energy used for human transportation. In recent years, even the economic depression caused by the worldwide financial crisis has not reduced the high oil price much. One important reason is that cheap and easy-to-exploit oil has been unable to meet the human demand for oil, and more and more unconventional oil resources have been exploited. These unconventional oil resources exploitation use complex technology, high energy consumption and large investment, which increase the cost of oil exploitation, but also push up the price of oil. From this point of view, people also need to find alternative fuel products that can restrain the rise of oil prices. High oil prices also make it possible for some alternative routes, which were thought to be economically inexpensive, to be economically promoted. The relationship between the trend of increasing oil shortage and high prices and the rise of the oil substitute industry is being lost. However, compared with the diversity of energy sources of electricity, the choice of oil substitution is limited. Instead of petroleum, we need to find resources with huge amount, easy storage and transportation, and high energy density, while few resources and technical approaches are in line with these points. Coal chemical industry is an important candidate and relatively mature in technology. Global coal reserves are seven times larger than oil. After coal is converted into fuel oil, it can have all the advantages of petroleum fuel. More practical significance is that China is a country rich in coal, less oil and gas. New coal chemical industry mainly produces petroleum substitutes. It is necessary for China to develop coal-based petroleum substitutes by utilizing abundant coal resources for Enhancing Petroleum security.

      Recently, according to relevant sources, the two documents "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Planning" and "Coal Deep Processing Industry Development Policy" compiled by the State Energy Administration are expected to be published at the end of this year or early next year, which will make clear the future coal deep processing industry. Policy statement. At present, our government's attitude toward coal deep processing is "orderly development". The release of this policy will further clarify the state's policy attitude toward new coal chemical industry, which is a good opportunity to restart investment for coal chemical enterprises and large coal-producing provinces that have suppressed coal chemical industry for many years. China's major coal producing provinces are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions, and the cost of coal transportation remains high. Both the government and enterprises are more willing to transform coal into higher value-added products in the local area and then transport it abroad. Therefore, the investment in such projects in these places is very enthusiastic. Up to now, there are 104 large-scale coal chemical projects reported by various regions during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. According to the technical scheme reported by various regions, if all the projects are constructed during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the investment will exceed 2 trillion yuan. Fifteen of these large-scale key projects have been developed as demonstration projects in the above-mentioned planning, which means that 15 projects included in the plan will be approved by the Development and Reform Commission. At present, the Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau are reviewing and demonstrating a number of new coal chemical projects, covering coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil and so on. The amount of approval may reach 550 billion to 700 billion yuan. Thus, from the second half of 2012, China is expected to enter the peak period of investment in new coal chemical industry. This year, as the second year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the new coal chemical industry has entered a critical period. Investment, foreign trade and domestic demand are the "three carriages" to stimulate the economy. Under the situation that the foreign trade situation is not good and it takes time to expand domestic demand, it is still important for the state to restart large-scale investment projects to stimulate the economy. Means. Under this background, the total investment of the 15 new coal chemical demonstration projects mentioned above is estimated to be 550 billion to 700 billion yuan. According to the analysis, about 50% will be invested in equipment, 40% in construction and 10% in engineering design. It can be seen that coal chemical machinery and equipment will share the largest cake, is expected to "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"